Monday, February 02, 2009

Why Sam could be third

Just as Elaine Bunting on the Yachting World web site says that Sam can't get third as Roland Jourdain will never give up, he promptly does.

So Sam is currently third and on track for a podium position.

However the 2nd obstacle Elaine mentions is unfortunately a more serious one as Marc Guilemont has a redress of 50 hours more than Sam and so she would have to arrive 2 days ahead of him to keep that position.

Currently she is about 2,400 miles to go with about 100 mile advantage over Marc. While he seems to be going faster, he is also going in the wrong direction: if you check her VMG she is doing 2 knots better.

If that were to keep up (and its a very big if) then the times to finish would be:
Sam: 2372 miles to go VMG 9.2 knots implies time to finish in 258 hours
Marc: 2486 miles to go VMG 7.5 knots implies time to finish in 331 hours

Hence he would be 73 hours behind her.

Alas if only offshore racing was simply linear as that! I wouldn't like to bet either way, but she can still do it.

No wonder she is working on her trim so much!

3 comments:

bonnie said...

woohoo! :D

Greg and Kris said...

Shh, the frenchman might follow your blog. If he gets wind (pun intended) of these assessments, you'll put a dent in Sam's chances!

JP said...

If he's any sense he will be following what Sam posts on the VG web site and she has already said she is puzzled by Marc's course.

Though he has said he thinks his routing looks better than hers.

Puzzling.... interesting to see how it all pans out over the next few days.