Scary Numbers

ABN1 has remorselessly powered past the rest of the Volvo Ocean race fleet and now has a 38 mile lead, revelling in the steady trade winds and the reaching conditions its design excels in. The figure above compares the performance of Black Betty (as she's affectionately called) with her nearest rival movistar, measured in terms of the difference between the two of their distance to finish (DTF).

While there are pauses in the black boat's charge - and even the odd temporary reversal - the average over the last few days is around 0.6 - 0.7 knots faster and sometimes it's a full knot quicker every hour for a whole day.

Thats the sort of numbers that keeps the opposition awake at night - or at least used to until they became resigned to following in Mike Sanderson's wake and have now focussed on the other two podium positions.

Chinese takeaways

There were two race re-starts from the Chinese port of Qingdao as both the Clipper fleet and B&Q head out into the Yellow sea.




Ellen has another short hop - this time to Shanghi. But the crews of the Clipper boats are in for the long leg across the north Pacific all the way to Victoria in Canada as in the figure below.

Happy sailing guys!


Picture and graphic from Clipper Ventures

Ericsson Stops

Until yesterday Ericsson was bearing down on Pirates creating a fight between the similar Farr boats for third place in leg 5 of the Volvo Ocean Race.

But today the gap has stretched to 20 miles and Brasil as slipped through to overtake Ericsson. What went wrong?

Something funny seemed to happen Saturday evening. Ericsson's track on Virtual Spectator stopped not once but twice. What could have caused that?

I remember being asked before the Atlantic Rally for Cruisers or ARC
"but where will you moor up for the night?" Alas, I explained, there are no nice marinas let alone bars and showers mid-Atlantic.

So given the rest option is out, what could it be? Maybe there's been a sail accident like a wrap or split, or maybe a halyard broke.

Looks like Ericsson's luck hasn't turned yet.




Graphics from wikipedia and Virtual Spectator

VO80 looses half a point

Movistar hung on to their lead just long enough to deny ABN1 the prize of being first to round the Fernando de Noranha scoring gate. I think Mike Sandersons great pile of points can cope with being half a point smaller than it might have been if only - for example - his jib hadn't come tumbling down just after the Rio start.

Over the last two days there has been a near drag race for the gate where boat speeds can be compared, and its no surprise to see that the greatest ground was covered by ABN1.

Interestingly the next best averages were from Ericsson, who are gradually catching up with Pirates, so maybe their luck has changed - unlike the boat's skipper's name in Virtual Spectator which seems a bit behind the times (see graphic above).

But what is the source of Black Betty's power, what Bouwe Bekking has called the first VO80? Over the last 3 days it has averaged about 0.7 knots faster than the rest of the fleet. That's a significant difference and is the subject of much speculation.

On Sailing Anarchy there's been an interesting theory on the forums about how the keel's weight is not symmetric around the attachment and there is sufficient flex in the keel blade to permit it to twist and cause a downwards lift that increases the righting moment. Its a good idea, but apart from being illegal, there would also be problems with drag and the flex could permit oscillations.

Other clues have come from the emails. For example there was an intriguing comment from Mike here when sailing parallel to Pirates in the southern ocean "they changed to their sail as close to ours as they had and for sure they were closer in speed. We might have given away a little bit of a secret to our mates, the Pirates, but I am sure they will keep it too themselves."

That would suggest sail differences. Paul Cayard also made some comments here where he says of ABN1: "They had the time to build their second boat with the knowledge from the first, optimising the strength and the weight and making the bulb as heavy as possible. This, coupled with greater overall beam, makes for a much more powerful boat with the possibility of a wider sheeting angle, something very useful at the moment with a lot of reaching on the menu."

So there are other options than twisting keels to explain ABN1s speed. But it must be frustrating when one boat is clearly significantly faster making the Volvo Ocean race winner so little in doubt.

While the key battles to watch are for second and third, never forget the goldern rule "to finish first you first must finish". It ain't over yet.


Graphics from Virtual Spectator

Light trade

The tracks of the boats of the Volvo Ocean race on Virtual Spectator have lost their aimless drunken sailor stagger, and the odd wind arrow can be seen - yes, the first signs of trade winds are here. The figure above shows the current forecast - the aimless hodge-podge of arrows is still there north east of Rio, but the fleet has reached the steady parallel lines of the trade winds.

Just not that much - 6 - 10 knots. Enough to keep the light air boats like movistar happy - not so good for the ABN twins. But the wind is growing with every mile north the fleet goes. And Mike Sanderson has enough points that finishing from now on mid pack is all he needs to win.


Graphic from www.stormsurf.com

Sailing blogs

I followed Tillerman's comments back to his blog and felt a bit like Keats:

With eagle eyes
He stared at the Pacific, - and all his men
Looked at each other with wild surmise-
Silent, upon a peak in Darien.

Not just Tillerman's enjoyable blog, especially interesting for Laser sailors, but finding all those many links to other blogs.

More latter - when I've had a chance to read some and updating my list of links.

Slow Volvo

Slow going at the start of leg 5 of the Volvo Ocean race. The triple zeros reported by ABN-1 might be a telemetry fault, but the those figures are plausible given the stop / go "which side of the cloud are you" nature of the race so far. Bad for nerves, but good for the luck or skill of movistar which leaped into a 40 mile lead.

Hopefully the trade winds will soon kick in and normal service will be resumed.


Graphic from Virtual Spectator

Rendezvous in Qingdao

Congratulations to Liverpool for winning the first leg of the re-start of the Clipper Round the World race. It can't have been easy for crew to convince their employers to let them re-shedule holidays - even to take account of something as drastic as a whole fleet worth of keels about to fall off.

Captain JP is especially pleased for his fellow crew-mate on the St Malo run who's been sailing on Liverpool for Leg 4.

And they will soon be joined by Ellen and co. on B&Q which is due in Qingdao in China on Thursday.


Picture from www.clipper-ventures.co.uk

Competition for Navigators

Dee Caffari has turned the corner on her challenge to be the first woman to sail the wrong way round the world single handed. Now off Cape Town she will be heading back up the Atlantic blown by the trade winds towards her finish line at Brest. Her target is the 11th of May - 172 days at sea without no company but the birds and all the satellite gear that can be squeezed into a 72 foot Challenge boat.

And there's a challenge for armchair sailors and navigators - to predict where her return track will cross the outgoing one, with the prize £ 5,000 of travel vouchers.

Give it a go by clicking here!


Graphic from www.avivachallenge.com

Bon Voyage

It's farewell to Rio for the boats of the Volvo Ocean race. There will be one last look at the statue of Christ and Sugar Loaf as they round the mark off Copacabana Beach before heading north east to the open sea.

Its another long leg - a full 5,000 miles to Baltimore, with scoring gate at Fernando da Noronha. But the crews have had time to recuperate after the southern ocean leg, basking in the warmth of the traditional Rio welcome.

Some teams should be leaving particularly re-energised - ABN1 with their win, Ericsson with their new captain, and movistar after their good recovering to take 2nd in the in-port. Others less so - like Pirates, Brazil and ABN2's less inspiring performance.

The forecast is for a mini high / ridge off the Brazil coast. The boats are likely to want to hug the shore initially to avoid it, then enter the trades steadily blowing from the east / south-east all the way to the equator.

Nice reaching conditions - another drag race. This has typically been good for the ABN twins, but the wind is lighter here, so expect to see Pirates and maybe even Ericsson up there too.

Its a long way to Baltimore.


Graphic from www.stormsurf.com

Security Breach

The Volvo Ocean race is reeling from a serious security breach in the early hours of today. As the crew enjoyed a well earned party amongst the bars and clubs of Rio, the ugly side of that famous city was at work in the docks.

In Rio the rich and poor mingle cheek to jowl. Favelas and penthouse apartments are just yards apart, and the inequality breeds anger, funnelled by the gangs towards drugs and violence. Up to now muggings and robberies were the rule, but early this morning saw the most audacious of crimes - theft of an entire Volvo 70.

As Paul Cayard and crew drank the night away, cut-throats led by a well known Rio resident Mr "Long" J. Silver over-powered the security guards (which proved surprisingly simple as CCTV footage showed the so called guardians too busy practicing their tango to notice till too late) and took Pirates out to sea, jolly roger flying in the moon-light.

It would have been yet another case for Interpol, yet another boat offered in murky deals in the pubs around the Solent, if only they had not chosen a Farr hull to steal. For hearing the news there was one thought - it was all hands to ABN1.

It was quite a sight. With the fair Emma at the wheel (more Jane Russell than Keira Knightley), Mike "Moose" Sanderson led a crack team of Volvo's on a recovery mission. If the air had been lighter Silver might have had a chance, but with their greater power Black Betty over-hauled the Pirates as dawn rose, golden sky flaming red in the East.

The boarding party was led by Paul Cayard himself, knife between his teeth as he lept across the angry sea to re-claim what was his by right. There was hand-to-hand battle across Pirates deck until Long John was decked by a winch handle welded with surprising skill by one of the Ericsson crew.

By mid-day all boats were back in port and the incident was like just a dream.

Sea Fever

The days are warmer, the evenings lighter, and daffodils are in bloom - yes, spring really is coming. And with it thoughts turn to the waters again. Not just the re-start of the Volvo Ocean race (more on that tomorrow), but that inner voice that reminds one of the wind on the cheek, the taste of salt spray, the endless open horizon, the feel of the wheel under hand, and the motion of deck under boot.

In other words Captain JP is suffering from what doctors and John Masefield would no doubt call a clear case of Sea Fever.

I must go down to the seas again, to the lonely sea and the sky,
And all I ask is a tall ship and a star to steer her by;
And the wheel's kick and the wind's song and the white sail's shaking,
And a gray mist on the sea's face, and a gray dawn breaking.


I must go down to the seas again, for the call of the running tide
Is a wild call and a clear call that may not be denied;
And all I ask is a windy day with the white clouds flying,
And the flung spray and the blown spume, and the sea-gulls crying.


I must go down to the seas again, to the vagrant gypsy life,
To the gull's way and the whale's way, where the wind's like a whetted knife;
And all I ask is a merry yarn from a laughing fellow-rover,
And quiet sleep and a sweet dream when the long trick's over.

Storm Warning

Sailing must be one of the most environmentally friendly ways to go from A to B. Not just low emission but zero emission, using the power of the winds and tides alone.

Its also connects you with nature, with the call of the sea gulls, the smell of the brine, with moments of magic with dolphins, whales, and even turtles.

But even sailing is not going to be exempt from the effects of global warming. All that CO2 being produced by industry, for power and heating, and for transport is changing our planet and the oceans we sail on.

And what changes can we expect? Typically - but not always - warmer weather, which in the doldrums that could make the unpleasant unbearable.

Then there's the sea level rise. From a few centimeters to maybe as much as 10m. Think of that next time you're in the marina and work out what would be left when your head is convered by Greenland's melted ice. A whole new coastline, maybe miles back from the current one.

And new currents. There is a real possibility of the end of the Gulf stream that warms the UK and speeds boats towards world speed records on the transat. That could lead to Britain becoming as cold as Canada in winter while still warmer in summer.

Then there's the effect on wild-life. Most of the coral reefs we love will die - killed by rise in water temperature, a rise too quick to allow the reef to be re-established in cooler waters.

Plus storms, more storms, stronger storms, as the energy pumped into the system is released.

Its time to get real. Business as usual isn't going to happen. Either we must change how we use energy or we can expect the world - and the seas we sail - to change on us.

Ellen's Latest

Is anyone that interested in Ellen's latest venture? Sorry Ellen - you're still our top sailor and all, but its hard to get excited by your tour of the far East. Are the records really that significant, sailing wise? It seems more a case of raising B&Q and your profiles in the far East.

But it must be exciting to be sailing in new waters and its good to get more markets interested in yacht racing - particular where there could be many well healed sponsors.

Anyhow for those that are following it, the news is Ellen is riding out a storm (in the picture above) by sheltering behind Yaky Shima island, off Japan.


Picture from www.teamellen.com

Happy Sailing (hic!)

Its clear what makes Mike "Moose" Sanderson happy - a certain Emma and those 52.5 points he's clocked up so far on the Volvo Ocean Race.

Its also clear what makes the ABN team happy - happy hours. Check out their program of events here.

In summary they have had the following events:
- 22 March - Barbecue
- 22 March - Happy Hour
- 19 March - Happy Hour
- 18 March - Happy Hour
- 16 March - Social Dinner
- 16 March - Happy Hour

See the theme here? Well they are in Rio, where the air is warm, the nights welcoming, the beach a slice of heaven and the women......


Picture from http://team.abnamro.com

One's Rio Party

Rio is a party town, but there must have been just one party to be at last night - ABN's celebration of another victory for Moose and the boys on Black Betty.

And they deserve it. Yes the boat is clearly fast, but they also sailed a clean race without any of the screw-ups that slowed down the others. If you need any evidence of that, just look at where ABN-2 came in.

And it was good to see the two most troubled boats having good races. Movistar with the open doubts about their boat after their near sinking and Ericsson with their much published crew problems got the two other podium positions.

Not such good news for home team Brazil or accident prone Pirates. But then isn't there a tradition of pirates over-indulging themselves in wild on-shore debauches before staggering out to sea? It reminds me of this quote from the journals of that famous "buccaneer" William Dampier from his pirate days:

"There were about forty Frenchmen aboard one of the ships where was a good store of liquor, till the after-part of her broke away and floated over the reef. She was carried out to sea with all the men drinking and singing. Being in drink they did not mind the danger, but were never heard of afterwards."

ABN-1 now has a commanding lead at half way point of the Volvo Ocean race. I am resigning myself to not hearing from Emma about our promised day sail until at least the end of June when the distractions of her fiance's string of victories will end.

In the mean time I will cheer myself up on a grey London afternoon with some memories of the parties I enjoyed in Rio nearly a decade ago.


Picture from www.volvooceanrace.org

Turning Tide

Ellen's off again! Not on her own this time, but sailing a fully crewed B&Q, off to break records on the Asian Record Circuit.

It's a shame, for we don't have a chance to wave her off from some British port and watch her head off into the Atlantic.

There seems to be more action in the waters of the Far East at the moment - with the Clipper fleet also re-starting from the Philippines.

But like so much of sailing today, race organisers must take into account the needs of sponsors, who are more and more likely to come from Asia. Sailing in Britain has rarely broken the mainstream - with Ellen being nearly the sole exception.

In the past it was the Whitebread, before the cost rose and the brewing company asked what's in it for them when it's customers were mostly football fans, not sailing fans. So now its the Volvo, and there's only a stop-over in Portsmouth, not the start and the finish.

There are also greater global forces at work. Recently Britain was surpassed by China who's GDP grew to become the world's fourth largest. With a booming economy comes demand for luxuries like yachts and a need to gain the publicity that sailing can bring.

And not just in China. LG of South Korea must have pleased by its sponsorship of the last but one Global Challenge, when its boat dominated the race and caught the attention of at least this techy buyer.

There are a billion Chinese and only 60 million Brits. The universities of both of India and China educate more engineers each year than all of those in Europe in total. We better get used to it.

After all China was once a great sailing nation - remember the fleets of Admiral Zheng He.



Picture from www.teamellen.com

Farewell, old sailor

A personal note to this post as yesterday I was at the memorial to an old sailing friend, the father of some of Captain JP's cousins.

He loved cruising on his Westerly 28, moored off his retirement home in Dartmouth. He was famous for taking friends and relatives across the Channel and over to the Scilly Isles.

There were many stories from those that sailed with him of their voyages - and from the non-sailors of their escapes.

His three children all inherited his love of the sea. One for a time crewed super-yachts, while another sailed in last year's Fastnet (and came in 2 places above my boat, darn him).

We never sailed - it was always a case of sometime or next time. Now we never will.

Farewell.

Something missing

It was one of the traditions of the Volvo Ocean race - but not this one. The iceberg - a floating white mountain brooding on the horizon. Crew woken to take a look, to know they really are deep in the southern ocean (as if the chill of the water wasn't enough).

And the stories that go with the photos. Blasting downwind with an iceberg to the left, an iceberg to the right and beads of sweat on the helmman's forehead. Spotters on the foredeck and the sounds of growlers bouncing off the hull.

And not just the Volvo - the other races that venture into the south including the Vendee Globe have faced the same threat. Dee Caffari was recently becalmed in a field of six giant 'bergs.

This Volvo has told a different story. The northerly marks have led to frustrations of wind holes not the fear of ice. A bit of me thinks it's a shame - that we have lost something in the rush to be safe. The majesty of the iceberg has been banished from the management plan of a race for professionals.

But would even the thrill seeking armchair sailors, safe with their laptops and capuccinos, really want to see carbon fibre shells of a boat flying through rock-hard ice at 30 knots?

I remember my brother asking me to contact the organisers of the Around Alone 1994 - 95 to ask about the dad of one of his college friends. His name was Harry Mitchell and there was no news, ever. He was last heard of 1,400 miles west of Cape Horn.

There are enough thrills already - from keels dramas, near sinkings, and speeds of up to 40 knots, without bringing icebergs back. Better something missing than someone.


Graphic from Volvo Ocean Race 2002

Skippers and Crews

So Ericsson has announced its crew for the next offshore leg and their thinking is getting clearer. There's a new crewman Ross Halcrow - who sailed on illbruck with John Kostecki who says he's "one of the best trimmers I know". And he also knows about sails.

And that could be where Ericsson has been weak. Looking back at Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean race it was clear that at times - such as at the start - they were matching the likes of Pirates for boat speed. It was just later on that they fell back.

That suggests not a hull problem but a sail and trimming problem.

But there is something else. To keep trimming over thousands of miles requires motivation, something that is probably lacking on boats where winch handles are raised in anger. If I was Steve Hayles I'd have not just second but third thoughts about this leg.

For the one thing you can't do mid leg is get off. Mid ARC we were a thousand miles and a week's sail from anywhere, and stuck with our ship mates. The biggest factor in crew moral is the skipper that sets the informal rules of what is acceptable and what isn't.

We were lucky. For example one night when the spinnaker guy broke we were woken by the skipper's cry of "all hands on deck, please". The use of that last word is one reason I'd be happy to sail again with her and her sail company Blue Spirit Yachting.

Conversely a bully can demoralise the crew, splintering it into groups.

Kostecki better make it clear to Guillermo Altadill that winch handles are only acceptable for one purpose. Because Leg 5 is another long one, and you've got to concentrate on trimming not for days, but weeks.

Not a happy ship

How can it go so wrong? The tension on board Ericsson clearly is much worse than appreciated. According to today's Sunday Telegraph conflict between the navigator, Steve Hayles, and one of the watch leaders, Guillermo Altadill expoded into a "physical confrontation involving a winch handle".

Thats no way to run a ship, certainly not a happy one. And it'll result in more changes to the Ericsson team, with Hayles leaving at the end of the next leg in Baltimore.

That's beyond a mere disagreement - that's the sort of aggression that a good skipper should stop instantly, diffusing and working on resolving. Maybe thats what was meant by other crew saying that Neal had too little ego. Maybe they needs a firmer hand to steer the boat to a common goal.

It's not hard to guess what caused the tension - something about being last, again. On the TV show on Friday night Steve Hayles seemed reasonably confident in the decisions he'd made. Was he right?

Looking back at Ericsson's route over the last Leg of the Volvo Ocean race its not obvious they made any significant tactical mistakes. Yes on day 3 they were a bit further north than the the fastest pack. But they were a lot better positioned than ABN2 which ended up overtaking them and taking the last podium slot. And they didn't get their tactics so misjudged that they had to drastically head south, dropping from first to last in the process as did ABN1.

Indeed often the losses for Ericsson happened during drag-races - such as when the fleet was heading to Cape Horn or past the Falklands. That's a boat speed or a trimming issue. But they started ok, just got increasing less competitive.

So maybe its the watch leader that should be leaving.

Two skippers down

There is much for the crews of the Volvo Ocean race to talk of over those welcomed beers in the bars of Rio. Not just stories from Leg 4, of the routine of life on board, of gybes and out of control surfing, of calms and storms, of boredom and fear, of routing disasters and triumphs, and of the girls of Ipanema as they walk by.

With the longest leg over there is also time for re-assessing campaigns, with unsurprisingly Ericsson leading the soul searching. And it is the skipper Neal McDonald who takes the fall, demoted to watch leader with John Kostecki taking over as skipper. It's ironic - not just given the competition between the two on the last Volvo, but also because the reverse happened that time too, with Neal being promoted into the skippers seat.

It was interesting hearing the comments from the crew on the Volvo site - full of support for Neal. One possible insight on what was wrong was when one said about Neal "He is incredibly humble and doesn’t have an ego. Maybe that is part of the problem". Sounds like friction within the crew - the sort that needs a leader to bang some heads about.

There is also the on-going doubt about the performance of the boat. Built from the same design team as Pirates - runner up of the last leg - it seems measurably slower.

But even with one design fleets there can be subtle differences. Take the Global Challenge with its in theory twelve identical 72 footers. But its always Save the Children trailing somewhere at the back, and boats like BP are pushing towards the front. Some boats just are that bit slower.

And the other adventure sailing global race has lost a skipper. In this case its David Pryce of the current leader Western Australia who won't be joining for the re-start.

In either case it hopefully will mean one thing: for both races the competition on the next leg will be invigorating. No doubt the legs on the girls of Ipanema have a similar affect on the crew as they sip their beer in those bars of Rio.


Picture from Volvo Ocean Race

Open to debate

When there are problems within teams on competitions like the Volvo Ocean Race they are usually resolved behind closed doors. But for movistar the frustrations and fears became too much and the skipper and crew invited cameras into a fascinatingly frank discussion, shown on the tv broadcast late friday night.

Having had to fix the boat five times so far and nearly sinking in the deep southern ocean near Cape Horn, there were open doubts about whether the boat is safe. One crewman asked what could be said to their kids if the boat sinks and they don't come back. Another said he had "zero faith in the boat and the people fixing it right now". And the skipper Bouwe Bekking said Farr "just deliver the plans, they're not liable for anything".

Farr have responded - a press release on their web site admit the design failures on Pirates and Movistar, putting them down to the learning experience. As they ruefully put it "It is humiliating that this system has been the cause of such upsetting consequences to two
great competitors in this race"

Is it the VO70 spec or the Farr design that has failed? The success of the ABN boats suggests the latter. But its been painful for movistar's skipper and crew. And unlike the crews on the other boats, they are still at sea, days away from Rio.



Graphic from Farr Yacht Design

Watching from Sugar Loaf Mountain

It's the final hours of leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race - at least for the leading boat ABN1 as thoughts will be turning to the rituals of arrival. The sound of the horn as you cross the line, the feelings of elation and pride in completing the journey, the welcoming sight of your mooring space, the first beer, the first shower......

And those thoughts seem to have stimulated Brazil, pulling them as if on a thread towards their home country, overtaking ABN2 and with Pirates firmly in their sights.

But its not all fun, with Mike "Moose" Sanderson morning the loss of his beloved dog, ABN2, as noted, has lost another place, and poor old Neil still struggles at the back of the fleet on Ericsson.

Remember it will all be worth it very very soon - for I've never been to Rio without having a great time.

And I imagine I was again on Sugar Loaf this evening, watching the glorious sunset over the beaches and favelas of Rio. What would I see in the distance? Would it be the navigation lights of ABN1 on the horizon, getting ever closer, announcing the arrival of Black Betty to claim another victory?


Graphic from Virtual Spectator

Inching forward

The's nothing more frustrating to a sailor than lack of wind. The worst thing about last year's Fastnet was the time drifting around Lands End before gently bobbing out into the Celtic Sea. So it could be worse for the boats of the Volvo Ocean Race, and by the look of the forecasts it might well get worse. At least we had the dolphins to look at.

The next 24 and 48 hours looks like above - dark blue (thats the lowest wind colour) and arrows all over the place. At least at the moment they're moving - around 10 knots is half what they want to be doing, but hey, it will still get them there in just over 2 days.

Keep thinking of Ipanema Beach boys!


Graphic from www.stormsurf.com

Coasting along

As the fleet approaches the end of leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race, the forecasts for the weather at the finish are coming into focus. With ABN1 only 800 miles from the end, there should only be 2 or 3 days worth of GRIBs for the navigators to worry about.



The mini low to the east (as pictured in the last post) has caused place changes, with ABN2 being punished for being too close, letting Pirates slip through. Now all the fleet is hugging the coast in the final push for Rio.

(as an aside - why hasn't Sao Paulo got a mention on the Virtual Spectator map?)

Coming up are light winds, mostly in the right direction (southerlies) but gradually changing full 180 degrees to northerlies as can be seen in the forecast below for 48 hours out.However the change is least pronounced the further north you go where there are easterlies. So if ABN1 gets lucky it might be approach Rio at that time and have nice reaching weather for the finish.

If only they can get there in time.....



Graphics from Virtual Spectator and www.stormsurf.com

Under a thousand...

...nautical miles to go - at least for Moose and co, as they break that milestone on leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean race. Behind them is yet again the Pirates, overtaking ABN 2, then Brazil, while at the back is still Ericsson. Ok, not right at the back as Movistar staggers forth to re-join the race, and not as far back as if they'd joy-rided through the Falklands sounds, but still a bit depressing for Neil and co.

The weather forecast you can see above is for mild winds for the next few days, with the gentlest of lows hanging off the Brazilian coast, so it will be pleasant sailing over the next few days, maybe even till they finish this long leg.

And on a cold, wet evening in London it would be very tempting to jump on a plane to be able to welcome them to the wonderful Rio.



Graphic from www.stormsurf.com

Go East, Young(ish) Men!

In the end it was a unanimous decision – all the boats of the Volvo Ocean race went to the east of the Falkland Islands. It maybe longer but the winds are better and memories of those that went west on previous races are not happy ones.

At Cape Horn it looked for a minute like more boats than just Brazil would take the Le Maire Straits route – ABN AMRO ONE until the last moment was heading that way, but was this a change of mind or a decoy? Who can tell?

There was of course another choice at the Falkland Islands – go between them! I’d have been tempted if I was on Ericsson to say “Sod-it – we’re last and likely to remain there. Let’s have some fun”. Imagine blasting up the Falklands Sound at 20 knots – that would not just give some great PR photos but also cheer up the weary crew too!

On the other hand its been a long leg and Rio is a city worth rushing to.

Image from Virtual Spectator

When good news is bad news

Well there's finally good news for Ericsson - they're not last any more. Buts it's a sad way for it to happen as yet another Farr boat has keel problem. This time its Movistar which nearly sank in the freezing southern ocean, water breaking through under the relentless pressure of driving at over 20 knots.

For a time it seemed that Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean race would be the one where you could count them all out and count them back in, and for once the VO70 hulls, keels, their hydraulics, and the rigging would all keep in one piece. Then this. But look on the bright side - they say worse things happen at sea... er. .. I mean....

And (I can almost cut & paste this) its congratulations to Mike "Moose" Sanderson and the boys on Black Betty for being first again, this time to Cape Horn. I'm sure it's a lot more satisfying than just 3.5 points, for the Cape is the most significant landmark of all for round the world yacht racers.

And now there's the routing decisions of which side of the Falklands to go. The forecast for 24 hours out from stormsurf below suggests more wind the the east, which BB would probably like. But after that there's a ridge of light winds, and how to cross that?


Graphics from Virtual Spectator and Storm Surf

Close Quarters

There's some close sailing going on deep in the south Pacific as the boats of the Volvo Ocean race sprint towards Cape Horn. Movistar and Pirates are locked together fighting for the chance to challenge Black Betty, and both gaining - if ever so slightly - on ABN AMRO ONE. At the back ABN AMRO TWO has overtaken Ericsson, who are fighting back hard.

Its been a long slog across the empty cold wastes of the planets biggest ocean, but there's no chance to relax as the pressure is on all the boats for the points within reach at the scoring gate just 400 miles ahead.

With no tactical decisions for navigators till the turn north it's a case of trim, trim, trim and gentle on the helm. And either elation or despair when the scheds come it.



Picture from Virtual Spectator

Drag race revisited

It must be good to be Mike Sanderson. Ok, yes he is down below 57S, where the spray at 20 knots must hit like hail. Yes, he has the burden of command and interupted sleeps. And yes this Shrove Tuesday he's missing out on Captain JP's famous pancakes.

But yet again his Black Betty is in the lead, stretching away from Pirates in the drag race for Cape Horn. Even though the wind is (at least) no stronger than that for Paul Cayard the lead just keeps getting bigger. And he has in front of him not just more points ready to be picked, but the prospect of shore in leave in that wonderful city of Rio. And of course newly engaged to Emma Richards!

Behind him the news from the rest of the fleet of the Volvo Ocean race is mixed. Ericsson's reported a spectacular wipe out made even more exciting by the swing keel being the wrong side post a crash-gybe (not fun).

Just remember its not over by a long way - there are still 3000 miles to go to Rio, including rounding the Horn and the decision which side of the Falklands to go!


Graphic from Virtual Spectator

Ripping yarns from the South China Seas

The troubles keep coming for the Clipper Round the world yacht race. On leg 4 from Freemantle to Qingdao the bad news started with Glasgow being threatened by real pirates near Singapore. These not being the jolly Captain Jack Sparrow type fresh from sparring with the georgous Keira Knightley but the ones with machines guns and bad-ass attitudes.


Then one of boats reported faults with the keel, in real danger of falling off. Similar faults were then found in others of the fleet, and so racing was supended as the boats headed to Subic Bay in the Philippines for repairs.

The crew (including those who have sailed the St Malo race with Captain JP) headed home as the shore-crew got to work. But even then drama continued, as they faced the unwanted excitement of the Philippine government declaring a state of emergency, with rumours of a military coup being planned.

All in all a bit too much excitement even for a once in a life-time adventure holiday.


Image from Clipper Ventures

Too far south?

It's worked for Mike and the crew of ABN AMRO ONE twice before, but will it work again? Diving south they give up short term advantage for longer term positional gain. And again, having passed the second ice gate of leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race it's a familiar sight on Virtual Spectator, with Black Betty's nose further south than the others.

At the ice gate the direct route to Cape Horn was about 126 degrees true, but the fleet headed not just south but south-west, with courses of up to 197 true, sailing 70 degrees away from the rumb line. Of course given the wind direction the "perfect" course might have been direct down wind but they were heading a long way off course on the so-called "penguin" route.

Already there's been a hit. On the race track between ice gates the boats lined up like beads on a wire, and Pirates were forced to watch as ONE extended their lead hour by hour as the latter showed off her broad reaching power. It also showed up Ericsson weakness - despite there being stronger wind further back she still slipped slowly down the table, and have now lost a place to the fast catching up Brasil (unless they've had another spell of bad luck).

But also the wind forecast isn't always stronger the deeper south you go. For example in the forecast below for 48 hours out the wind is better slightly higher up.

Who has got it right, the Pirates or Black Betty?

Roll-up, roll-up now, and place your bets!


Pictures from Virtual Spectator and www.stormsurf.com

Are we there yet?

Yes, the back seat drivers stuck in the middle of the Pacific can relax. The boats of the Volvo Ocean race have finally reached the first ice gate on the long leg from Wellington to Rio. Now they can bear away and head for the next one, same latitude just further east.

But as the figure above from Virtual Spectator, behind them are the strong winds which for once have been forecast well in advance. So the fleet is battening down the hatches and checking the rigging for what is to come.

Already ABN AMRO TWO at the tail end has experienced winds up to 30 knots and thats just the start of what could be a rough 24 hours. It can't be much compensation to see that their sister ship's radical tactical move south has put them in the lead, over 200 miles ahead.

However it must be somewhat of a confort to Moose and the rest of ABN AMRO ONE that their gamble paid off. Maybe the weather didn't pan out just as expected, but it was enough - and they missed the worst of the wind hole.

Though as an email from the kids navigator Simon Fisher put it, there are still 3,000 miles to go.

Slowly does it

Its a hard slog for the boats on Leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean race as they make their way to the ice gate. The race organisers have located it in the part of the southern Pacific where not only is there little wind but erratic and unpredictable wind at that.

To make it even more fun there's a storm brewing about to roar in with 50 knot winds and 30 foot waves. So they really really want to get through that gate so they can head off to Cape Horn. But Moose and the boys on Black Betty are currently heading west of north. What is pretty gutting is they could easily make a nice easterly course from where they are.

They're at 50S but there's just 5 knots of wind. If that keeps up, with 4 degrees of latitude to go it might take them a day to get to the gate under current conditions.

I'm sure they can't get out of there quickly enough.

Navigator's Nightmares

So ABN AMRO ONE goes from first to last to first. Where will it go next? That depends upon the weather. But where will the wind blow?

The forecasts have been the stuff that makes navigators wake up screaming - if they get any sleep, searching GRIB files for clues about where to head next. Take the two predictions below, both from www.stormsurf.com and both for the same time, 12Z on Thursday 23rd February.

The first was from yesterday:
The second is today:
The boats are around 51 - 53S, 152 - 157W, where the forecast is so different. It's all changed - the low meant to come up from the south and the one predict to come down from the north have both fizzled out, leaving fluky weather, winds that could come from any direction. Getting the routing right can be a matter of pot-luck, or some inspired reading of the isobars.

Further ahead there are the lows behind with awesome 40 foot waves. But the storm should weaken mid Pacific by which point the fleet should be safely further east.

As to what to do now? Just get to that ice gate before the wind runs out and you grind to a halt like ABN AMRO TWO and Brazil.

Interesting. Impressive.

I was looking at the forecasts last night and was unable to feel sufficiently confident to give a view on the proper routing. But one thing was clear - the uncertainty would lead to hard choices for the boats currently fighting out leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean Race. And the morning's position table certainly was interesting, with ABN ONE dropping from first to last.

A quick look on Virtual Spectator and it was clear the navigators had a rapid change of heart, with a dash south as in the figure above. What was really impressive is how Black Betty showed her speed and caught up Pirates. That must give Moose and the guys a lot of confidence to re-write their tactics on the fly and trust the boat to see them through.

As to where now, thats even more interesting. There are a host of lows coming in from all directions. One from the tropics, one from NZ and one from the deep south, as can be seen in the forecast from www.stormsurf.com for 2 days out:

The question is - where will the fleet be? Ok, so I have no routing software just half an envelope, and old biro and a calculator, but here goes. As in the previous post suggested, the VO70s can do about 7 - 8 degrees of latitude in 24 hours. This was ok when they were heading south, but now they are mostly heading east, so at 50S that's a factor of 0.642 or about 11 - 12 degrees of longitude per day.

At the moment they are at around 165W so this time tomorrow it will about 154W and the day after at 143W. It might be a bit less to include a bit of N/S movement eg to get to the ice gate between 148W and 143W at 48S.

So if you look at the figure above you can see the most important low is the one coming up from the Antartic, hence the dash for more wind in the south.

After that, well - again- its interesting......


Graphics from Virtual Spectator and www.stormsurf.com

The longest day

I've finally got round to switching on one of Virtual Spectators more esoteric overlays - the international date line. If you felt today was a long day, that's nothing compared to how long Monday was for the crew of the Volvo Ocean race, as they crossed from the eastern to western hemispheres.

But at least all the fleet seems to have avoided the breakages that plagued so many of the past legs, even though the result of ABN AMRO ONE course curving south then south east as it smoothes into the lead seems all too familiar.

Behind there's been some good competitive sailing, with Ericsson and Pirates battling out for third, and movistar showing how even a 2 hour handicap at the start won't stop them catching Brasil. Indeed if it was just Farr designs there wouldn't be this talk about which boats were disappointing. But the Juan Kouyoumdjian designed ABN twins do seem to have an extra gear, especially in the nice reaching conditions.

It won't last. The forecasts are getting uncertain, depending not on the lows barrelling around the southern ocean but one dropping in from the tropics. There might even be a bit of light winds to slow the leaders down.

This could get interesting.....


Picture from Virtual Spectator

The Road to Rio

Good luck and safe sailing for all boats and crew currently heading out of Wellington taking the long road to Rio across the southern Pacific. The longest leg of the Volvo Ocean race has started with all boats pointing their noses south to south-east.

While checking out the final crew list (which can be found here) I noticed something interesting - half the navigators are Brits. Ok, its only a small sample of six now Brunel has decided to sit out the legs between Melbourne and New York. But is it a fluke or an indicator? Does Britain's wider view of the world (say compared to Americans) give a greater feel for geography? Does the famous British weather and Brit's interest in the weather develop an intuitive feel for highs, lows and fronts?

Anyhow, being another Brit with an interest in navigation, a quick look ahead, graphics from www.stormsurfing.com. The wind and pressure for the next 24 hours and 48 can be seen below. As a rough estimate if the boats do 420 - 480 miles in 24 hours they will cover about 7 - 8 degrees of latitude.

A big low can be seen to the north east (at around 35S, 160W) squeezing a high below it. There's currently good wind at 50S, 170W but by the time they get there it will probably fade out, leaving lighter winds. Thats not good news for Moose and Black Betty, but maybe a ray of light for Neil & co on Ericsson.

By the way, the pretty picture at the top comes from http://team.abnamro.com/ and shows the end of leg 3.

Leg 4 Preview

Tomorrow sees the start of leg 4 of the Volvo Ocean race as the fleet heads out across the wide wilderness of the southern Pacific. From Wellington they will have to cross 6,700 miles of rolling seas before seeing the welcoming sight of Sugar Loaf Mountain. And by now the skippers and nagivators will have an idea of whats ahead, having had time to crunch the numbers, running scenarios and working out strategies for the days ahead.

The direct great circle path to Cape Horn drops down to 65S so ice gates have been placed at 48S to keep the high tech speedsters safely north. At the start there's a high to the east (see figure below) which will drive the boats south from the start, seeking the stronger westerlies at 50S.

A key question is how much pure southerly and how much a bit of easterly, but that will probably depend each boat's sweet spots and best points of sail. After that..... lets see what the weather brings.


Graphic from www.metvuw.com

Half a boat length and half finished

So its congratulations to movistar. Not just for clinching a win on the 3rd offshore leg of the Volvo Ocean race, but also giving us spectators some variety in the leg position board. For once its not ABN AMRO ONE heading the fleet but having to make do with second place. But what a battle it must have been over those last few miles, with only 9 seconds and half a boat length dividing the two.

Then the improving Brasil and Pirates, followed by the ABN boys on TWO, no doubt eager to get cracking on fixing their main.

But not followed by Ericsson, or at least not officially. For Neil McDonald's boat has crossed the line but not finished, having suspended racing. They are rather cleverly taking advantage of the rules to do some urgent boat fixes without incuring any time penalties. Unlike movistar who's urgent keel work will mean they'll suffer a two hour penalty.

Its interesting to see that Ericsson are not blaming their poor performance on this leg on anything breaking. We've all had those moments when you fall out of the grove and nothing seems to work. But is the boat "one of the fastest in fleet" as Yachting World said? The evidence from the past few days is not that encouraging.

Meanwhile its congratulations to Dee Caffari for passing half way and is now passed New Zealand heading west towards Australia. As the Volvo crews downs some cold ones in the bars of Wellington she has for once a bit of nice reaching weather to look forward to.

Picture from Virtual Spectator

Front to back

Its not much fun being Neil McDonald at the moment. Leg 3 of the Volvo Ocean race has been a near rumb line drag race, with the various teams showing what their boats are made of. At the front yet again was ABN AMRO ONE, the black boat showing her legs whenever the wind picked up. At the back was yet again Ericsson, overtaken even by ABN AMRO TWO with its split main.

The emails on the Volvo site describe the feelings of the crew and the mental energy needed to keep them going when they see yet again boats fly past whatever sails they set, leaving them stuck at the back.

This has happened enough for worries to mount that there is nothing they can do. Captain JP's three rules of how to win an ocean race (see below) only applies once you start. There's also a zero-th: get a competitive boat.

Last time round the world Neil crewed and then skippered Assa Abloy which must have won their hearts with her ability to kick her heels and fly to the front. It seems they have no such luck this time, no prospect of being "first after Australia".

When competing in a race that takes all, body and soul for months, requiring endless committment, to make that extra effort when drained to ones core, this is a bitter cup to drain.

Meanwhile at the front it's a different story, with two of the boats that have been longest in the water fighting a glorious tacking battle all the way to Wellington. This will be a leg climax to relish, the fat boat ABN AMRO ONE that likes strong winds having to fight movistar inch by inch in winds light and getting lighter.

Watch this space!

Captain JP's three rules for ocean racers:
(1) Don't break anything critical
(2) Get the weather routing right
(3) Sail fast


Pictures from Virtual Spectator

Off again!

No, Captain JP isn't off to the slopes again (alas). It's the start of the third offshore leg of the Volvo Ocean race. Can it match leg 2 for thrills, breakages and world speed records?

Certainly the slog from Cape Town to Melbourne produced more than its fair share of drama. All of the Farr boats suffered some sort of damage and questions about the new Volvo design ever more pertinent.

But its noticable that the two ABN boats mostly survived intact, which many are putting down to the time on the water to shake down the problems (though it didn't help movistar so much). With Captain JP's engineer hat on, its always the case that new technology will produce problems - thats why you always have a test phase.

It was interesting to hear a Farr designer admit on the Volvo TV show that they didn't know much about hydraulics. But its through exercises such as this they (and the industry) can learn. For those that know about hydraulics don't know about the stresses on a boat powering into a head-sea in 40 knots of wind.

So is it "madness" to quote Yachting World? The success or failure of the new design will depend upon two things - the sponsors and the sailors. There's no doubt this Volvo has been making headlines if only for the wrong reasons. And there's no doubt that when these boats go, they go like rockets. Just watching the in-port race in Melbourne is enough to get the adrenaline going.

Could the Volvo go back to old technology such as static keels as used by the Open 60s? Would such designs have any chance of beating the 24 hour record set by ABN AMRO 2? Would that matter to those who fund this race?

Its interesting to see what has happened to Brunel - carted off to join the others only for the transatlantic leg. And why? For thats the leg with the best chance of beating that world record. For thats the sort of news that sponsors like to be associated with.

Eventually the bugs will be ironed out. Its gutting for the likes of Ericsson who had such a good start, but all engineering takes time to get right. Look at the Clipper fleet: new boats, all known technology, but they too have had keel problems and the race has had to be suspended and crew flown home.

You can't even say take the safe option and a Challenge boat 72 foot of steel like Dee Caffari battling her way across the south pacific about to meet the Volvo's going the other way. For those too had problems in the early days with their masts (remember that?) and Dee for all her heroics of weeks of tacking to windward is never going to get a 24 hours speed record.

The Volvo 70 certainly has its vocal supporters, led by Mike "Moose" Sanderson. Well, he has some reason for having warm feelings about Black Betty as ABN AMRO ONE is affectionatly called, as he has won yet another couple of points by coming first yet again in the Melbourne in-port race.

So its congratulations to Moose - again!

He must be getting used to people saying that. And not just for his habit of winning races. It appears that Emma Richards has a good excuse for not (yet) getting in touch with Captain JP about that sail in the solent. For she and Mike are now engaged.

All together now, ahh.....

But Mike will have to sail really fast to be in Wellington in time for Valentine's day.


Picture from Virtual Spectator